By John J. Joex
The current season is only a few weeks old and most of the Fall shows have at least a couple of episodes under belts, but the prognosis looks grim at this early hour. None of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows on the broadcast networks or on the cable channels have delivered outstanding ratings and many have demonstrated some precarious trending early in the season. Does this mean that pretty much every show is in trouble and that the broadcast and cable channels could decide to clean house on genre shows? I saw that potentially happening toward the end of last season, but the networks kept just enough Science Fiction and Fantasy shows running to avert the catastrophe, but this season we may have a different outcome. I will do an assessment by network based on what the ratings have indicated so far.
ABC has only one genre show running right now, No Ordinary Family, and it has only had a single episode. And it actually pulled decent number for its debut with a 3.1 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 10.5 million viewers. If it held onto that audience, it could get the greenlight for a second season, but shows like this tend to trend downward throughout the season. I’m guessing that if this one dips below a 2.5 rating, and I expect it will, then ABC could likely pull the plug because their tolerance for underperforming genre shows has fallen over the last few years. V will return for its second season sometime in November, but based on its ratings slide from its first season I have already pegged this one as almost a sure thing to get cancelled.
CBS has only one genre show, Medium, which underperformed last season and has fallen even further this year showing that is Ghost Whisperer lead-in did a lot to bolster its numbers a year ago. The guys over at TV by the Numbers think it is safe, but CBS has had the lowest tolerance for genre shows of late, and I would say its days are numbered.
FOX has Fringe currently running and Human Target waiting in the wings (its premiere was pushed back to November 17th). They moved Fringe to the treacherous Thursday 9 PM EST timeslot last year where it got pummeled by juggernauts CSI and Grey’s Anatomy, but the network stood by the show. However, its first two outings this year have delivered even lower numbers than it saw last year, and I wonder if FOX may start to lose patience. I would say if this show does not start edging upward in the coming weeks, it will definitely find itself on the bubble by season end. And who knows what’s going on with Human Target. FOX reshuffled its schedule after it quickly cancelled the failed drama series Lone Star, but why should that result in delaying the Human Target premiere? And while moving it back to Wednesdays seems a better location than the wasteland of Friday nights, the show never performed well in the 8 PM timeslot last year.
NBC seemed to have a hit on their hands when The Event debuted two weeks ago with a 3.7 rating in the 18-49 demo and over eleven million viewers, but those numbers went south quickly with the show’s second outing when it pulled only a 2.9 rating and under nine million viewers. And serialized shows like this often demonstrate a steady downward trend throughout the season, so its fate is anything but certain. And their other new show, J.J. Abrams’ Undercovers, is teetering on flop status with a mediocre 2.0 rating for its debut that dropped to a 1.6 this last week. Abrams while may have some clout with the networks, it only goes so far and he could decide that his efforts are best focused on the big screen if both of his current shows meet an untimely death. And Chuck continues to underperform which could lead to the peacock network finally deciding to throw in the towel on this one. Still, it has a chance of continuing since one more season would get it over the magical 100 episode mark that the syndication market prefers.
The CW is one of the few networks that seems to be coasting along fine. While Vampire Diaries has slipped some from the ratings it enjoyed last season and Nikita is anything but a ratings hit, both are performing well enough to survive on the fifth place network. However, two long-time schedule tent-poles, Smallville and Supernatural, plan on ending their runs with this season (though we have heard that before, so don’t count them out just yet).
Then there’s Syfy whose Stargate: Universe performed below expectations in its first season and did not attract a lot of attention for its Season 2 premiere (pulling only a 0.5 rating and about 1.2 million viewers). Caprica will return this week and act as a lead-out for SGU, but that one disappointed in the ratings last season as well. Neither are a sure thing to continue with Caprica the most likely to get the axe. Sanctuary returns later this month, and that one should be pretty safe based on how it performed its first two seasons.
So what does this leave us? Sanctuary and Vampire Diaries should be back next season and perhaps Nikita, but do any of those really strike you as flagship Science Fiction and Fantasy shows? Chuck still has a chance to eek out another season, which will make genre fans happy. And perhaps Fringe and even The Event could stick around and maybe even No Ordinary Family. AMC’s The Walking Dead, which will premiere at the end of the month, has generated enough early buzz that they may just rubberstamp it for a second season, and that’s definitely a good thing. But even if all of these managed to survive for one more season, that leaves pretty slim pickens’ for next year compared to the choices we have had for about the past five years.
But as I have said before, that is not necessarily a bad thing. The broadcast networks have regularly demonstrated that they do not understand the genre nor do they manifest the patience to nurture these shows and give them the chance to grow. And they have delivered a lot of mediocre product since the boom of network Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that we saw following the Lost phenomena. I would much prefer just a few well done shows to a smorgasbord of mediocre to poor offerings. And of course it’s very early in the season and the ratings direction could change, but what I have seen the last few years is the first few weeks set the trend and rarely do you see a significant reversal of early sinking numbers. And my current prediction is that Undercovers will be the first genre show of the season to get the axe.
You can see the ratings results from this past week at this link, and you can keep track of all your favorite shows each week with our Cancellation Watch column which will show the latest Nielsen numbers and my assessment of the Cancellation Alert status for all of the shows currently running.
Catch Up With Last Season’s Shows on DVD:
