By John J. Joex
FOX’s Fringe is currently into its third season and has built up a reputation as a quality, engaging Science Fiction show that has really started to hit its stride (after a shaky first season start and a bit of a lapse last season) and is on the verge of working its way into the top tier of genre shows. But now it looks like its future is very much in question. The show debuted back in 2008 with much fanfare as the next big thing from J.J. Abrams (Lost, Alias), but it did not deliver huge ratings returns when it first bowed. However, it picked up steam as its inaugural season progressed and really took off when it landed a post-American Idol berth mid-season. For its second season, though, FOX moved the show to the treacherous Thursday 9 PM EST timeslot where it had to contend with ratings powerhouses CSI on CBS and Grey’s Anatomy on ABC along with NBC’s comedy block. Its rating plummeted, but it still performed better than any show FOX had put in that hour the previous few years, so it managed to win a third season renewal. This year, the show debuted about where it ended last year, with around a tepid 2.1 rating in the 18-49 demographic. That looked okay at first, but then it began to slip further. I figured the show was safe through the end of this season, and that still seems like a decent bet (though not guaranteed), but its prospects for a fourth season continually wane. And just this past week, FOX may have delivered the show its death blow when they announced that at mid-season Fringe will get kicked to Friday nights. That’s usually where a network dumps a show to burn off its remaining episodes before cancellation. Now maybe FOX thinks Fringe can help them resuscitate that night and that maybe it will perform relatively well there like The X-Files once did. But that’s most likely wishful thinking and I think they actually have the show on the network executioner’s short list. That’s a huge mistake on their part, and here’s why.
Science Fiction and Fantasy shows have historically performed poorly during their original runs. The classic example of that is Star Trek which perennially fought off cancellation before NBC finally axed it after its third season. A more recent example, and much closer to FOX, is the cancellation of Firefly back in 2002. Star Trek, though a poor ratings performer at first, went on to launch a multi-billion dollar franchise still alive today. Firefly also has proved its staying power through the sale of the original series on DVD, its theatrical follow-up, and its continuation in comics and books. The networks, though, are always looking for a quick financial turnaround, which Science Fiction and Fantasy shows rarely deliver. Lost was a rare example of a genre show that sparked ratings magic right away and continued to pull strong numbers throughout its original run. Most others deliver only mediocre numbers at best, but these shows have regularly proved their staying power and franchise earning potential, especially when allowed to fully develop despite less than spectacular ratings. Even FOX’s The X-Files had only middling ratings during its first couple of seasons before it later became a mainstay in the Top 20. A few other examples of shows with middling ratings that ultimately grew into notable franchises are Babylon 5, Stargate SG-1, and Syfy’s Battlestar Galactica. Networks need to understand that with Science Fiction and Fantasy shows they are making an investment for the future that may not deliver immediate returns.
And what FOX really needs to look at is that they are already well into that investment, which means that cutting bait now would be the worst move. If they let Fringe finish out the current season with twenty two episodes, that would give the show 65 total. That’s only 35 short of that magic 100 that the syndication market looks for in a property. They could split that into two shortened seasons that could each run straight through like Lost did its last few seasons. The cost that FOX would put into those 35 episodes would probably be less than what it would cost to start up one or two new series to fill the hour they would lose from Fringe. Allowing Fringe to wrap up its story arc over that time, assuming it keeps up the same quality we have seen this season, could elevate it to one of the premier franchises in the genre from the past ten years or more. FOX could definitely profit from the subsequent syndication run and potentially even the DVD sales (depending on who holds of the rights) as well as any other spin-offs from the franchise that would almost certainly follow. We have seen it happen with other genre shows over the past forty years, especially those that really grabbed their fans. But if they truncate Fringe now, that could result in it fading as yet another genre show never allowed to fully discover its potential. Sure, the core fanbase would keep the DVD sales steady, but the long-term returns would certainly be much higher if the show were allowed to wrap up its story arc. They’ve already invested this much in the show, and cancelling now would probably result in the lowest return on their investment and might count as almost as big of a blunder as the Firefly axing. It will cost FOX some money to keep the show on the air two more seasons, but ultimately I believe they would profit in the long run by that move.
And fans should definitely make a preemptive move to let FOX know they are out there and supporting the show. A campaign may already be ramping up at this point, but they should get it into high gear as soon as possible. Maybe send pieces of amber to the network (from the Amber 31422 used to seal up wormholes in the alternate universe) or some gimmick like that. Buying the DVDs from Season 1 and 2 would help as well, along with watching the episodes online or downloading them from iTunes. And they should also watch the show live on Thursdays, and then on Fridays when it makes its move, instead of DVRing the episodes. Anything to let FOX know that the fans are out there and they want the show to go out on its own terms. We will see what the network does in the coming months, but the fans need to make sure their voice is heard if they want Fringe to avoid the untimely death it currently seems headed toward. And FOX needs to think long and hard before dropping the axe on what looks like a very promising franchise that could remain viable for many years and a source of long-term returns.
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Axiom’s Edge Featured Columns:
The Must-Watch List: The best of the best of Science Fiction, Fantasy, and Horror movies
The Anti-Blockbusters: The Science Fiction and Fantasy movies that bucked the Hollywood bloated-budget, mega-blockbuster trend and still managed to deliver a superior viewing experience.
Blockbuster Overload: The Science Fiction and Fantasy movies that took the blockbuster genre to the extreme and perhaps to excess.
The Audio Files: Reviews of Science Fiction and Fantasy Audio Books.
