By John J. Joex
So the season is over now and we know which shows got the thumbs up for another season and which shows got kicked to the curb. And it’s worth taking a quick look back at my predictions for the season to see how good of a job I did at forecasting which shows would survive the circus that is the Nielsen ratings system. I should note that I do not have a very scientific means of making my predictions. That is, I don’t have a specific formula that says based on x ratings numbers a series will get y Cancellation Alert. The guys over at TV by the Numbers do have a more numbers based system with their Renew/Cancel Index, and it actually proves might accurate most of the time. Mine, however, is based mostly on watching the trends of the numbers and going with what my gut tells me. But you know what, my predictions were pretty darn accurate as well!
My Cancellation Alert status has five levels: Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High. And every series that I had pegged with a Medium or higher Cancellation Alert before the season began ended up being cancelled. Every show that I had assigned a Low Cancellation Alert status prior to the season start ended up getting a renewal (and one that I had indicated as being in its final year, Supernatural, came back because The CW changed their minds and decided to keep it going). Of the four that I assigned a Moderate Cancellation Alert status to, three survived, though just barely (Fringe, Nikita, and Chuck), and one got the axe (Undercovers). Once the season began, a few of the shows that I had pegged with a Medium or higher Cancellation Alert status started off fairly well (No Ordinary Family, The Event, and The Cape), but within a month or two of their premieres, as their ratings declined, I was already indicating that they had troubles ahead. For several others that started off very slow (Medium, Human Target, and V), I moved up their Cancellation Alert status very quickly and it proved quite telling.
The three bubble shows that survived the cut (Fringe, Nikita, and Chuck) had some extenuating circumstances that kept them from getting the axe. Both Fringe and Chuck were at the point that it was to the benefit of the studios to keep them going one more season so that they would offer a more attractive syndication package (with both shows getting to about the 90 episode mark by the end of next season). Both of those do well in DVD sales as well and have a devoted fanbase that will keep their merchandising viable. Nikita survived solely because that show airs on fifth place CW. And it goes into next season with a lot of pressure to improve its numbers.
So not to toot my own horn too much (but I am anyway), but my predictions were pretty much on track most of the season and came quite close in the final analysis. I definitely raised the red flag on shows like Fringe and perhaps Chuck and Nikita as well, but things looked pretty grim for all of those at various points throughout the season and plenty of others played the death march for them as well.
Cancellation Watch will be back on a weekly basis starting in September once the Fall season kicks off. I will also put up occasional updates over the next few months with the ratings results of the Summer shows (more about them at this link). So stay tuned here for some pretty accurate indications on which Science Fiction and Fantasy shows will get cancelled and which ones will get renewed.
Below is the list of all of this season’s genre shows with my pre-season predictions, the highest Cancellation Alert status I gave them during the season as well as their final status:
| Title | Pre-Season Cancel Alert Prediction | Highest Cancel Alert Status in Season | Final Status |
| Human Target | Elevated | High | Cancelled |
| Medium | Elevated | High | Cancelled |
| V | Elevated | High | Cancelled |
| Caprica | Medium | Medium | Cancelled |
| No Ordinary Family | Medium | High | Cancelled |
| Stargate: Universe | Medium | Medium | Cancelled |
| The Cape | Medium | High | Cancelled |
| The Event | Medium | High | Cancelled |
| Chuck | Moderate | Elevated | Renewed |
| Fringe | Moderate | Elevated | Renewed |
| Undercovers | Moderate | Elevated | Cancelled |
| Being Human | Low | Medium | Renewed |
| Game of Thrones | Low | Low | Renewed |
| Nikita | Low | Medium | Renewed |
| Sanctuary | Low | Low | Renewed |
| The Walking Dead | Low | Low | Renewed |
| Vampire Diaries | Low | Low | Renewed |
| Smallville | Final Year | Low | Ended |
| Supernatural | Final Year | Low | Renewed |
