By John J. Joex
There’s plenty of Fall Preview rundowns on the many sci fi/entertainment sites around the web (and we have the full schedule plus premiere dates of this season’s genre shows over at the Sci Fi Scroll site). But only here do you get a preview that also gives you a good idea of whether the series will last past the current season. My Cancellation Watch column is now going into its fourth year, and I will continue to bring you the most updated ratings results (despite how much we revile that system) each week as well as my predictions on the futures of each of the shows currently running. If you want an idea of my track record of predictions, take a look at my wrap up from last season. I don’t have a sophisticated system with complex algorithms and in-depth calculations, but I know how to read the trends and I have seen in the past how network executives react to them, so you can count on my predictions steering you in the right direction (the guys over at TV by the Numbers have a pretty good, more numbers based system with their Renew/Cancel Index that I recommend keeping an eye on as well). Here I will take a look at the new shows and for my predictions on the returning shows, go to this link.
As far as the new shows go, this season I have to admit there are a few that I consider to be a complete toss-up (more on that below). So going in, I’ll grudgingly concede the possibility that I might miss on a couple more than I have the previous seasons (where I haven’t missed too many). But it’s not going to stop me from making my predictions and standing by them, so read on and feel free to scream and shout and holler (in the comments section below) if I have one of your favorite shows gets pegged as a casualty for the current season.
My Cancellation Alert statuses are as follows: Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, High
Fall 2011 New Science Fiction and Fantasy Shows:
Alcatraz (FOX, Premieres at Midseason) – Former prisoners from the infamous Alcatraz long thought dead begin to reappear and carry on their criminal streaks. A group is brought in to investigate (including Lost’s Jorge Garcia) and they are startled to learn about the secret, mysterious history of the prison.
This is another J.J. Abrams product and looks like it will be pretty arc-heavy and possibly pretty dark as well. I’m looking forward to it, but I’m not certain if the typical Prime Time viewer will be willing to invest in this one.
Cancellation Alert: Medium
The American Horror Story (FX, Premieres October 5) – Glee creator Ryan Murphy brings us this “psycho-sexual thriller” about a family moving into a creepy mansion in Los Angeles (not really the usual locale for a gothic tale, though). The early buzz suggests this one is angling for a Twin Peaks-style horror tale and that could work in its favor or quickly sink it.
This is one of the new series I lump into the toss-up category. FX is not really known for its scripted original genre shows, so it’s hard to say how committed they will be to it. The show has generated some early buzz, though, and could actually turn into a dark horse breakout for this season.
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
A Gifted Man (CBS, Premieres September 23)
A brilliant surgeon gets some help from beyond when his deceased wife appears to him and begins teaching him the meaning of life.
This one is definitely reaching out to the audience that used to tune into The Ghost Whisperer on Friday nights and it has a chance if they decide jump onboard. Despite the genre cluster-frak that is Friday nights this season, this one shoots for a less sci fi-oriented audience and won’t really compete with the viewers who tune into Chuck or Nikita, the shows which share its 8 PM EST timeslot. But if it falters and doesn’t grab the Ghost Whisperer crowd, expect CBS to give up the ghost pretty quickly.
Cancellation Alert: Medium
Grimm (NBC, Premieres October 21) – In this new series from the peacock network with an incredibly original concept, Sam and Dean Winchester—er, make that Nick Burkhardt—finds out that he is a Hunter—I’m sorry, a “Grimm”—one of a group of people who hunt down supernatural creatures that threaten normal people. Wait, am I experiencing déjà vu? Was there a change in the Matrix?
I usually don’t go higher than Elevated when assigning a pre-season Cancellation Alert status, but the writing is on the wall for this one. It’s concept is too familiar, it hasn’t achieved much advance buzz, it bows on Friday night (when was the last time a new genre show broadcast networks succeeded on that night), every other network is cramming their genre shows onto Friday nights, and it’s up against Supernatural (the series it borrows heavily from) and Fringe. I can only say that the future of this one looks grim . . .
Cancellation Alert: High
Once Upon a Time (ABC, Premieres Sunday October 23) – Storybook characters living in the modern world but not knowing their origins discover that the Evil Queen has frozen the fairytale world in time and they have to stop her . . . say what?!?!
I’m sorry, I just don’t get a good feel for this. Sure it comes from two Lost veterans (Adam Horowitz and Edward Kitsis), but does this really sound like the type of thing that your typical prime time viewer would tune in for? And are genre fans really anticipating this show’s debut? Maybe its 8 PM Sunday timeslot indicates ABC is going for more of a family show, and/or maybe this will be one of those quirky, dark horse shows that takes us all by surprise. But I’m not putting a lot of money on it. The early trailers just make it look like an over-the-top, (bad) camp-fest.
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
Person of Interest (CBS, Premieres Thursday September 22) – Lost’s Michael Emerson plays a software genius who has created a pattern recognition program that can predict criminal activity before it happens. He then teams with an ex-CIA agent played by Jim Caviezel to prevent these would-be crimes.
Yet another new J.J. Abrams entry and yet another that I consider to be a toss-up. This one would seem a shoe-in for success seeing as CBS is giving it the plum CSI slot. But then the eye network has been notoriously ungracious toward genre shows the last few years (assuming this one really counts as a genre series which I’m thinking it will), and if it does not return CSI-like ratings early on it could be in trouble. Remember that they cancelled Eleventh Hour, which flirted with genre elements, a few years back and that show ended the season in the top 25.
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
The Secret Circle (CW, Premieres Thursday September 15) – A teenage girl moves to a small Northwestern town to live with her grandmother after her mother dies in an accident, and while there the girl discovers that she and several others in the town are witches. And if this sounds like Vampire Diaries with Wicca, then you’re not too far off because it comes from L.J. Smith who also penned that book series and it has Kevin Williamson as its producer.
Vampire Diaries is the CW ‘s biggest hit of the last few years and this one looks to replicate that success seeing as The Secret Circle follows a similar template and has the hit show as its lead-in. I’d say there’s a pretty good chance that Vampire Diaries viewers will stick around for this one.
Cancellation Alert: Low
Terra Nova (FOX, Premieres Monday September 26) – The world of the future is dying from overcrowding and overdevelopment. So a group of people decide to go back into the past, to the age of dinosaurs no less, to build a new civilization and a new hope for the human race.
Yet another one in the toss-up category. You would think that with Steven Spielberg’s name attached to this one the network execs would basically give it a free ride, and that just may be true. But it’s pretty expensive (they already cut it to only 13 eps to keep costs down), and we have seen several high-profile genre flops over the past few years. This one will definitely debut with big numbers because of the advance buzz. But if it does a FlashForward / The Event style drop-off in the Nielsens, Spielberg’s name may not be enough to save it.
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
New Midseason shows not yet on the schedule: Awake (NBC), The River (ABC), Touch (FOX)
Also See Our Cancellation Watch Preview of the Returning Science Fiction and Fantasy Shows
