Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.
By John J. Joex
This past Sunday’s episode of ABC’s Once Upon A Time delivered yet another drop in the show’s numbers as it pulled a 3.2 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 9.7 million total viewers. Not that those are necessarily bad numbers, but that is quite a drop-off from the 4.0 that the series debuted with back in October. Over at FOX, Terra Nova has also suffered from a notable ratings decline. That show kicked off with a respectable, though less than stellar, 3.1 rating in the 18-49 demo back in September. Yet the most recent episode (Monday a week ago as the show was preempted this week) came in with only a 2.2 rating. Terra Nova definitely has a lot more to worry about than Once Upon A Time, but does the latter series face more struggles as the season progresses?
Two years ago, ABC bowed two high-profile science fiction shows that scored well in the ratings early on, though they fell fast and far by season’s end. FlashForward, dubbed as the next Lost, bowed in September of 2009 with an impressive 4.1 rating in the 18-49 demo and nearly twelve and a half million total viewers. That show’s numbers began to drop off pretty quickly, but it still remained respectable at least through the Fall months. But by season end, it had stumbled to below a 2.0 rating and the heir to Lost found itself cancelled. In November o f 2009, V debuted with an even more impressive 5.0 rating and almost fourteen and a half million total viewers. It dropped off pretty quickly, but again maintained respectable numbers through its (short) Fall run. When then series returned in the spring, though, it had slipped considerably in the Nielsens as it hovered just above a 2.0 rating toward the end of the season. It did get a second season renewal (barely), but essentially arrived the next year DOA and it disappeared shortly afterwards as it continued to deliver anemic numbers.
This trend definitely seems to be repeating itself with Terra Nova, though that show has not fallen as far or as fast. Still, a 2.2 rating is hardly sufficient to keep afloat a show as expensive as this one. The series wraps up it first season in two weeks (December 19th) and it needs to trend upward, otherwise its future is in series doubt. Once Upon A Time does not need to worry too much at this point, but it has to hope that the downward trend does not continue. It’s still ABC’s top rated show on Sundays, regularly topping its lead-out Desperate Housewives. And shows tend to drop off in December because it is a lower viewership month. ABC should have saved the two episodes it has scheduled for the next two weeks until January so that it could have had an uninterrupted run through to the end of the season, giving it time to build up steam. But as long as this show stays north of a 2.5 rating, I would say it has a good chance for a second season. If it takes the bigger dive like the one FlashForward experienced (which ABC did no favors to by giving it an extended hiatus), then it could find itself on unsure footing as May approaches. The January numbers for this show will be crucial to see if the audience returns once the holiday season is over.
I will have the full ratings results for all of this week’s shows in the regular Monday column next week.
Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers
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