Cancellation Watch: Tracking the weekly ratings and the cancellation prospects of the science fiction and fantasy shows currently airing on broadcast and cable networks.
By John J. Joex
The second half of the season is about to begin (you can see the full schedule at our Sci Fi TV Page) and surprisingly no genre series were cancelled prior to the New Year. But several are on pretty thin ice and should expect to get there walking papers anytime between now and May. Following are my predictions on all of the shows which kicked off in the Fall, starting with those least likely to get cancelled and moving on to those with little or no hope. Not included below are AMC’s The Walking Dead and FX’s The American Horror Story which have already been renewed as well as NBC’s Chuck which is in its final season.
Cancellation Alert Levels: Low | Moderate | Medium | Elevated | High
Vampire Diaries (CW) – As it stands this is the only show at this point that is pretty much assured of a renewal for next season. It did see a drop off in its numbers at the beginning of the season but has since edged back up and is The CW’s top rated show.
Cancellation Alert: Low
The Secret Circle (CW) – The CW had high hopes for this show, based on another book series by Vampire Diaries scribe L.J. Smith, but it has not quite met up to expectations ratings-wise averaging less than a 1.0 in the 18-49 demo so far this season. But that’s more of an indication of the overall struggles for The CW and it is their second highest rated show. Expect to see it back for a second season.
Cancellation Alert: Low
Once Upon A Time (ABC) – Based on its early numbers, this show should be a lock for renewal. But then it has seen a steady decline starting in late November. It could still slide some more and be safe, but if it pulls the same type of drop off that FlashForward and V did, it may be in trouble. But for now, I’m saying it is on safe ground.
Cancellation Alert: Low
Supernatural (CW) – Like the other shows on The CW, this one has suffered in the ratings, even though its doing okay compared to the other shows on that network. I’m saying that it is safe for now, but don’t be surprised if The CW announces this as the show’s “last season” (in lieu of admitting they cancelled it).
Cancellation Alert: Low
Grimm (NBC) – NBC has touted this show as a hit and it has done well considering that it airs on genre-crowded, low-viewership Fridays. But its numbers aren’t that impressive. If it drops just a few more ticks, it could find itself in trouble.
Cancellation Alert: Moderate
Sanctuary (Syfy) – This series has dropped off in the ratings the last few season and may be on its way out. But then its not impossible that they do one more season to give it enough episodes to make it more attractive for a syndication run.
Cancellation Alert: Medium
Person of Interest (CBS) – This J.J. Abrams series has done okay in the ratings, but it is definitely delivering much lower returns than CSI did in the same timeslot last year. CBS has a history of kicking shows to the curb if they do not meet up to their higher than average expectations and they also tend to have little tolerance for genre shows (though its really a stretch to call this on a genre entry). Basically I would say its a toss-up at this point.
Cancellation Alert: Medium
Terra Nova (FOX) – This series has definitely underperformed in the ratings and it’s an expensive show, so logic would suggest that a pink slip is in its future. But when did logic ever dictate the actions of television network executives? It is a high-profile entry (with Steven Spielberg’s name attached), and fans definitely felt like later episodes demonstrated an improvement in quality, so network may give it a chance to redeem itself with a second season. In any case, expect an announcement on this one sometime in January as they need to get rolling on a second season because of the extended production time required for the series.
Cancellation Alert: Medium
Nikita (CW) – This one is currently The CW’s lowest rating show, so it would seem like a no-brainer that they would cancel it. But then they are the fifth place network, so nothing’s for certain there. But I expect this will be its last season.
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
Fringe (FOX) – All the numbers point to this one being cancelled by season end. But then the numbers pointed that direction last year and it survived. Perhaps the studio gives the show to the network for one more season to pad out the syndication package. But then the series already has enough episodes for that market. I’m guessing this season is its swansong, but if so I hope FOX makes that decision soon so that the writers have the chance to tie up as many loose ends as possible.
Cancellation Alert: Elevated
A Gifted Man (CBS) – CBS hoped to lure the same crowd that used to tune into The Ghost Whisperer and Medium to this show, but it hasn’t quite worked out that way. They did order a few more episodes to air in the second half of the season, but I figure they did that to plug up some holes in the schedule. Expect this one to give up the ghost by season end.
Cancellation Alert: High
Next, I look at the cancellation prospects of the new mid-season shows as well as those just now returning for their current seasons like Syfy’s Being Human and HBO’s Game of Thrones. For those predictions, go to this link.
Sci Fi TV on DVD and Blu-ray from Amazon.com:
