Axiom's Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

By John J. Joex

There were twelve Science Fiction and Fantasy bubble shows this past season and of those seven were cancelled. I looked at the cancelled shows last week and now I will take moment to consider what kept the other five from a date with the network executioner.

ABC:

V – This show delivered a not very good revival of an 80’s series that was not all that great to begin with and it failed to ignite many sparks in the ratings. So why did it get an extended lease on life? Some will say that ABC didn’t want to admit failure on both of their heir apparents to the Lost throne (the other one, FlashForward, got the axe). But this is network television we are talking about and I have a hard time buying that. V did score some pretty decent numbers when it first bowed last Fall, though it saw a quick drop-off that accelerated following its extended hiatus. Perhaps they thought that those early numbers indicate that they have something here people want to watch that maybe just needs a few tweaks. Maybe one of the network execs just has a soft spot for the show. Otherwise, I just can’t offer much of a justification. By the time this one wrapped up its season, its numbers were well below the usual threshold for keeping a show like this going. And it really wasn’t very good and I did not see much in the way of fan support for the show. Personally, I would have much rather they kept FlashForward going, but its numbers were even worse. So instead we get assaulted with another season of this retread, though I can’t see it going much further than its thirteen episode order unless they completely retool it to bring it to at least a passable level of quality.

Chances of Surviving Next Season: Slim at best.

CBS:

Medium – So last year, CBS rescued this showed from cancelation when NBC decided to let it out to pasture, and this year it decides to keep Medium going in place of their similarly themed Ghost Whisperer. That surely has the ire of fans of the latter show, but it mostly comes down to a matter of economics. Both Medium and Ghost Whisperer performed reasonably well on the typically low viewership Friday night but the numbers had dropped considerably from the prior year. Still, both shows regularly won their timeslots, so they had that going for them. And Medium is produced in house, so it’s cheaper for CBS than Ghost Whisperer which CBS co-produces with ABC Studios. So they trimmed their losses by letting go of the more expensive of the two. Sorry, Ghost Whisperer fans, but it’s really as simple as that. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Medium go as well next season if it continues with the ratings attrition it saw this season.

Chances of Surviving Next Season: It really needs to improve its numbers to continue much further.

FOX:

Fringe – Personally I never considered this one a bubble show. Yeah it struggled in the brutal Thursday 9 PM EST timeslot that FOX moved it to this season, but they apparently expected that and the show performed better in that hour than anything else FOX has put there for the last few years. Quite a number of sources around the internet considered the show in trouble throughout the season, but I figured J.J. Abrams’ name alone gave the sow enough clout to keep it going as long as it delivered at least respectable numbers. That said, if it does not at least hold onto its current numbers next season, then the Abrams card may not be enough to keep it afloat.

Chances of Surviving Next Season: Okay, if it keeps its numbers steady.

Human Target – This one I don’t get because it seems like this had all the elements for a hit show. Fast-paced, stand-alone stories, an exceptional cast with a charismatic central character, and great writing. But for some reason it never registered with viewers. Sure, the schedule juggling FOX did with it early on didn’t help, but it eventually settled down into a steady timeslot. Maybe it was just too over the top or too comic book-ish for Prime Time audiences, and maybe a post-American Idol slot could have helped bring it more attention. In any case, FOX apparently had some faith in the show and it did survive the cut. But it can’t like the fact that it gets cast onto Friday nights next season. Still, I’m happy to get at least another thirteen episodes of this one.

Chances of Surviving Next Season: I’d like to say good, but have to say it’s a longshot at this point.

NBC:

Chuck – What more can you say about NBC’s little series that could? This one has lived on the bubble since its first season and just seems to thrive there. It can’t hurt that the NBC execs seem to have a soft spot for the show and always have. And critics seem to love its light-hearted, good-natured stories and continue to spread good buzz about it. Then there is also that very vocal and active diehard fanbase which keep bringing attention to the show as well. Expect this one to always pull mediocre at best ratings, but also expect it to keep chugging along while NBC remains as the fourth place network.

Chances of Surviving Next Season: Never bet against Chuck.

By John J. Joex

Seven Science Fiction and Fantasy television shows got the axe this past season.  Yesterday I looked at the reasons why for FlashForward, Ghost Whisperer, and Eastwick.  Today, I will look at the remaining four shows by network:

FOX:

Dollhouse – Well, you have to give FOX credit for trying with this one as they gave it the miracle renewal of the ages after its first season. But when it returned for its second season, its numbers dropped even further and perhaps even the CW would have pulled the plug on it. It surely didn’t help that it aired on Fridays when almost no one is watching, but then this show was just not a good fit for the networks. It couldn’t go far enough with its adult themes on broadcast television which resulted in an uneven feel in the quality of the episodes especially throughout its second season. Even the guest appearances by Summer Glau did little to generate viewer interest (and in fact , her track record may suggest she is cursed so NBC’s The Cape needs to look out), and I didn’t even notice much of an effort by the fans to convince FOX to keep it going. Better luck next time, Joss.

Chances of Being Saved: This show has already been put in the attic.

Past Life – If you blinked, you missed this show. But you didn’t miss much. It’s rather muddled premise of investigators looking into crimes based on people’s past life experiences was an ill-advised twist on the procedural formula to begin with, and the creative team did little to inject any life into the show. It pretty much arrived DOA with FOX cutting back its episode order before it even aired and then placing it in the treacherous Thursday 9 PM EST timeslot that had been pummeling Fringe all season while that show went on hiatus in February. It only aired three of its seven episodes before getting yanked, though for those interested it is currently airing out the rest of its episodes on Friday nights at 8 PM EST.

Chances of Being Saved: About as believable as the show’s premise.

NBC:

Heroes – Fans had been clamoring for this one to get its due for at least a couple of years and NBC finally obliged them. Heroes just never managed to live up to the promise of its first season and spent three years ambling through at times uneven and at other times just plain ridiculous episodes. It scored well with the much coveted 18-34 demographic, though, and also performed very well overseas (according to Tim Kring having 45 million viewers) so NBC kept it chugging along. But by its fourth season, its numbers had dropped to intolerable levels and the network (still smarting from its Jay Leno debacle) decided to clean house and drop the dead weight. There is a rumor that a wrap up movie or two could follow and that seems like the best way to go with the franchise at this point.

Chances of Being Saved: Unlikely, I don’t hear too many people crying over its departure.

Syndication:

Legend of the Seeker – I’d say this show made a major misfire by wrapping up its main story arc after its first season and killing off the main antagonist Darken Rahl. Maybe they did that because they weren’t sure they would get a renewal for a second season (though its ratings in its first year were decent), but it really took the wind out of the show’s sails going into the current season. Then they contrived a way for Rahl to return and basically started retreading the ground they had already covered. In addition, the show crammed too much into each episode. It would look like they were introducing a major story arc, but then they would rush to an ending by episode’s end. I believe these factors caused many viewers to lose interest and the ratings suffered. A raucous fan campaign has been working hard to get the show picked up for a third season, but I haven’t heard of any network showing interest yet.

Chances of Being Saved: The best out of any of this season’s cancelled shows, but still slim.

Previous: Why Were Eastwick, FlashForward, and Ghost Whisperer Cancelled?

Next: Why Were V, Medium, Human Target, and Chuck Not Cancelled?

By John J. Joex

Seven shows got the axe this past season so I will take this opportunity to look at the reasons why for each of the unlucky ones by network.

ABC:

Eastwick – This show started off last fall somewhat uneven. It couldn’t quite figure out whether it wanted to be a comedy or a supernatural-tinged drama and its cast did not seem to gel at first. In addition, the central male lead (Paul Gross), who was supposed to portray this sinister, charismatic character integral to the show, just failed to register on screen. The show started to come together after a few episodes, but the damage was already done. ABC could have promoted it a little better, perhaps giving it a few special airings after Desperate Housewives whose audience this would have appealed to. But the network apparently lost faith in the show quickly. And it did have a decent lead-in from Cougar Town that it failed to take advantage of, so it can’t blame the timeslot for its demise. Ultimately, it got yanked with several episodes left unaired. A fan campaign tried to save the show, but never generated much attention so count this one as the future answer to the Trivial Pursuit question: “What was the title of the third failed attempt to create a television series based on The Witches of Eastwick?”

Chances of Being Saved: That boat already sailed.

FlashForward – You can’t blame the network for this one. You have to point the finger right at the show-runners. This show was anointed as the “next Lost” last Fall and received plenty of promotion from ABC. The creative team should have taken that and run with it, and early on it looked like that head a pretty promising story to work with. But then it meandered and at times got completely off course as it delivered mundane procedural plots along with downright boring soap opera diversions. The ratings, which started out strong, headed south quickly. Of course it did not help that ABC put the series on extended hiatus at mid-season, but they did heavily promote it upon its return and even rushed out a DVD set for part one of the show’s first season. But viewers had lost interest by that point even though the show had some behind the scenes shake-ups that actually helped get it back on course storywise. That wasn’t enough to bring the audience back, though, and ABC decided to cut their losses. And I haven’t heard much in the way of a fan campaign trying to save it so it’s unlikely we will ever find out what happened after the second blackout that occurred with the finale’s cliffhanger ending.

Chances of Being Saved: Slim to none.

CBS:

Ghost Whisperer – Yeah, CBS cancelled this one, but it had a pretty healthy run going five seasons and 107 episodes. Could it have continued longer? The diehard fans think so. But CBS, notorious for showing little tolerance for Science Fiction and Fantasy shows, grew impatient with GH’s declining ratings this season (despite the fact that it regularly won its Friday night timeslot) and decided to show it the door. ABC, whose production company co-produced this one, showed some interest in picking it up, but eventually decided to pass on it. I would say that Ghost Whisperer has a decent chance of returning from time to time with a few television movies because its premise easily lends itself to that format, so fans looking for some resolution can at least hope for that.

Chances of Being Saved: Slim to none.

Next: Dollhouse, Past Life, Heroes, and Legend of the Seeker

By John J. Joex

This past week delivered only three Science Fiction and Fantasy shows with new episodes all of which were their season finales. I reported the results of Lost and Chuck previously with the former finishing its six year run with strong numbers and the latter going out on a down note. On last Thursday, FlashForward wrapped up its first and only season as well (I had previously incorrectly reported the prior week as the series finale, but that was part one of the finale). Not too many people tuned in to see what happened in the series on the day everybody had “flashforwarded” to at the beginning of the show as part two of the finale pulled only a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic and not quite five million viewers. The episode ended on a huge cliffhanger as another blackout occurred right at the end, but we will never find out what happened from there as ABC pulled the plug on the show several weeks ago.

With the season over, I will take this opportunity to look back at the Cancellation Alert* that I posted for each series throughout the season and let you judge just how accurate I was in predicting the fates of the Science Fiction and Fantasy bubble shows that aired during the year (which included every genre entry except Lost and the CW shows).

Looking at the shows by network, I will start with ABC and Eastwick which had at least a decent debut, though its numbers fell off pretty quickly. After only its second week, I predicted this series would be an early casualty among genre shows and it was pulled from the schedule by the end of November. FlashForward started up the with very strong numbers and looked like it might live up to its billing as the next Lost but it saw its ratings decline almost every week throughout the Fall months. I started to raise the red flag on this one by mid-November and had it at a Cancellation Alert of Medium by the time it ended its Fall run. When it returned in Spring, the ratings attrition actually accelerated and ABC called it quits on the show the week before the upfronts. I missed on V, though, which started late last Fall with very strong numbers, but like FlashForword it headed south quickly. When it returned from its hiatus in Spring with a continued ratings decline I figured its days were numbered as well, but ABC mysteriously gave it the greenlight for a second season. My early prediction for next season, though, is that it will not live beyond its thirteen episode order unless they completely revamp the show and manage to attract back the audience that showed some initial curiosity last November.

When Ghost Whisperer and Medium bowed on CBS last Fall with only mediocre numbers, I did not think too much about it because both were winning their timeslots on a typically low viewership night. But they continued a slow decline throughout the season and I finally raised the Cancellation Alert on both of them by mid-March. I split the difference on my predictions here as Ghost Whisperer ended up getting the axe while CBS kept Medium going (in part because their production company does that one and thus they pay less for it). ABC hinted that they might pick up Ghost Whisperer (as their production company cranks that one out), but ended up passing on it.

NBC continued to struggle as the fourth place network and Heroes stumbled out of the gate last Fall prompting an early prediction that it would get the boot quickly. I was only partly right on that one, though, as NBC kept it chugging along, despite weekly drops in its ratings, because it had too many other leaks in its battered hull to deal with. They eventually decided to part ways with the tired franchise by season’s end, though they indicated that they may do a wrap-up movie or two. Chuck also struggled with the ratings, but it does that every season. I had that one at a Cancellation Alert of Medium by late April, but it beat the odds once again and received the go ahead for a fourth season.

FOX, previously known as the sci fi killer network, stuck behind two shows while it sent two others to the executioner. Fringe struggled in its new Thursday night slot against juggernauts CSI on CBS and Grey’s Anatomy on ABC, but I believed the network would stick behind the show and I never raised its Cancellation Alert above Low. And as it turned out, the series got the nod for a third season even though it never came close to matching the numbers it enjoyed in its first season. Human Target never quite grabbed a sizeable audience but I felt like FOX would keep it around as well. As its numbers continued to decline, I did raise its Cancellation Alert to Moderate, but my gut feel was right as the network gave it the greenlight for a second season. Dollhouse debuted last Fall to abysmal numbers, though I initially passed on making any predictions on the show because of its unlikely renewal from the prior season. It continued to fall, though, sometimes barely beating out Smallville on the CW, and I predicted that FOX would go ahead and pull the plug, which it did. Past Life arrived in February with little fanfare and was pretty much DOA as it took over Fringe’s treacherous timeslot while that show went on hiatus and barely registered against superior competition. I had that one at a Cancellation Alert of Elevated after its first episode and it was gone after only two more airings.

None of the genre shows on the CW really struggled this last season even though the numbers for both Supernatural and Smallville (which moved to Fridays) dropped off from the previous season. In fact, the part time network elected to keep these two shows running into next season even though both of them were originally scheduled to end this year.

This will be the last of the Ratings Results/Cancellation Watch reports this season, but I will break in with reports on any genre shows that the networks air this Summer like ABC’s supernatural series The Gates which premieres on June 20th. I will also over the next week be taking a look by network at why each of this season’s cancelled shows got the axe, so keep an eye out for that.  Also, watch later this Summer for my predictions on the new and returning shows for the coming Fall season (and you can get a first glimpse at the Fall schedule at this link).

*Following are the Five Cancellation Alert Levels:
1 – Low
2 – Moderate
3 – Medium
4 – Elevated
5 – High

By John J. Joex

I’ve been predicting it all season long and many weary fans have been begging for it to happen and now finally NBC’s ailing superhero franchise will get the boot, though it may still get a wrap up of sorts. Word went out yesterday that the peacock network has officially decided to cut ties with what once looked like such a promising franchise. Heroes started out its first season as a ratings darling and won the honor as one of the 2006-7 season’s top water-cooler shows. However, the creative team could not recapture the magic of the show’s first year in subsequent seasons leading to a steady attrition of viewers. The numbers it pulled in the 2008-9 season would have gotten it cancelled on any other network, but seeing as NBC was struggling in fourth place by that time, they kept it alive. But the decline continued this year with viewership sinking below the five million point by the time the series finished up its fourth season episodes. Still, NBC considered keeping it around for one more year, but ultimately decided to let it rest. They are still talking about a two to four hour event that could air at mid-season to provide a final wrap up for the series seeing as they left viewers hanging at the end of this season. That’s actually the suggestion I made previously which shows that NBC execs must be scanning this site for ideas on scheduling! (Okay, perhaps not and I had nothing to do with the Leno debacle!)

The network has not given up on superheroes, though, as they have picked up the series The Cape which will star David Lyons and Summer Glau. Following is the official description of the show:

“The Cape” is a one-hour drama series starring David Lyons (“ER”) as Vince Faraday, an honest cop on a corrupt police force, who finds himself framed for a series of murders and presumed dead. He is forced into hiding, leaving behind his wife, Dana (Jennifer Ferrin, “Life on Mars”) and son, Trip (Ryan Wynott, “Flash Forward”). Fueled by a desire to reunite with his family and to battle the criminal forces that have overtaken Palm City, Faraday becomes “The Cape” his son’s favorite comic book superhero — and takes the law into his own hands. Rounding out the cast are James Frain (“The Tudors”) as billionaire Peter Fleming – The Cape’s nemesis – who moonlights as the twisted killer: Chess; Keith David (“Death at a Funeral”) as Max Malini, the ringleader of a circus gang of bank robbers who mentors Vince Faraday and trains him to be The Cape; Summer Glau (“Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles”) as Orwell, an investigative blogger who wages war on crime and corruption in Palm City; and Dorian Missick (“Six Degrees”) as Marty Voyt, a former police detective and friend to Faraday.

By John J. Joex

As expected, and as previously rumored, NBC’s Chuck got the greenlight for a fourth season. Even though the spy/comedy series has continued to struggle in the ratings, the peacock network decided to keep it going with at least another thirteen episodes and the option for a back nine. Less expected, by me at least, was ABC’s announcement of the renewal of alien invasion series V. That show started off very strong for the alphabet network but went into ratings freefall even after getting moved to the Lost lead-out slot. Apparently the network felt likes its numbers were good enough for an extension, though, and has ordered another thirteen episodes for next season. My prediction is that unless they do a complete overhaul on the series which brings back viewers, it won’t live beyond that additional order.

Less fortunate was ABC’s superior FlashForward as Michael Ausiello from Entertainment Weekly is reporting that one will get the axe (and he can be counted as a very reliable source). That comes as no surprise, though, as fifth place network the CW’s Vampire Diaries has been beating the show in the ratings lately. FlashForward started off promising but started to meander and left viewers disenchanted. It course-corrected when it returned from its hiatus, but the damage had already been done and its numbers continued to decline.

As we reported yesterday, Heroes also appears to be on the way out and it looks promising for FOX to give Human Target the greenlight for a second season (UPDATE: HT has officially been renewed).

As for new shows, ABC has picked up the superhero series No Ordinary Family which stars Michael Chicklis (Fantastic Four, The Shield). Following is ABC’s official description of the show:

The Powells are about to go from ordinary to extraordinary. After 16 years of marriage, Jim and Stephanie’s relationship lacked the spark it once had, and their family life now consists of balancing work and their two children; leaving little time for family bonding. During a family vacation set up by Jim in an attempt to reconnect, their plane crashes into the Amazon River. But this is where the fun starts for the Powells as they soon discover that something’s not quite right. Each of them now possesses unique and distinct super powers. But saving and savoring their family life will be equally important as they try to find purpose for their new power and embark on a journey to find out what defines and unifies them. The Powells are a totally relatable family that happens to be a little bit amazing.

By John J. Joex

With the upfronts scheduled for next week, rumors are starting to fly about the fates of several of the bubble shows. Following is what we have heard so far: TV by the Numbers claims from a reliable source that Chuck will get a thirteen episode order for next season with the option for a back nine. If true, this would place Chuck on the Fall schedule next season unlike the current season when the series did not show up until January. EW’s Michael Ausiello claims that Human Target has received a thirteen episode order for next season as well and that Chuck’s co-executive producer Matthew Miller will join the production team as showrunner along with Jonathan Steinberg. Heroes, on the other hand, appears to have one foot in the grave. Josef Adalian of New York Magazine’s Vulture reports that NBC will cut ties with the ratings pariah because it has more confidence in its new slate of shows.

While none of this is confirmed at this point, personally I do not find these rumors surprising and if it plays out this way it stays close to what I have been predicting. Sure, Chuck and Human Target have their ratings challenges, but they still have plenty of upside and the networks can see that. And Heroes is way past its prime and just needs to be put to rest, though I could see them slipping in a couple of movies to give the show some sort of closure. Not certain how many would tune in, though.

Stay tuned as more rumors and announcements will be forthcoming over the next few days and NBC plans on announcing their Fall schedule this Sunday afternoon so we will pass that along as soon as we get the info.

By John J. Joex

The Hollywood Reporter posted an interview today with NBC’s Entertainment President Angela Bromstad (not a job I would want considering that network’s fourth place standing), and in the discussion she made some comments that seem to suggest that Chuck’s prospects look hopeful. When referring to programming for Monday nights for the 2010-11 season, she said “We have Chuck”, suggesting that show will stick around. THR inquired further and asked if they could “just say it’s picked up” for next season. Her reply:

It’s our highest performing Monday night show. We look at it as a very strong player and it’s a show that matches up with our new shows. It’s too early for me to say for certain as it’s a conversation we’re going to have next week.

If nothing else, that sounds like a promising stance on the show going into next week’s upfronts. Interestingly enough, she had little to say about Heroes Heroes along with a suggestion that another show (perhaps The Cape) could act as Chuck’s companion on Monday nights in place of that flagging franchise (or at least share the timeslot during the season).

She also talked about the conspiracy show The Event which NBC has already greenlighted to series. She thinks this one will attract the audience that has been watching Lost and 24, so it may have some genre appeal. Also, NBC has given a series order to J.J. Abrams’ spy drama Undercovers which may have genre elements as well.

Stay tuned for further updates and be prepared for next weeks upfronts where the final schedule for the 2010-11 season will be hammered out.

Buy Chuck Seasons 1 and 2 on DVD from Amazon.com:

By John J. Joex

As I covered in last week’s Cancellation Watch column, there are currently seven Science Fiction and Fantasy shows on the broadcast networks on the bubble and I’d say with confidence that at least three of those will get the axe by season end if not six or even all seven. Along with the departure of Lost and a dearth of genre shows currently in the pipeline, this will leave us with a pretty bleak landscape in Prime Time next year.

As I have mentioned before, the surprise success of Lost back in 2004 changed the networks’ thinking about programming in the Science Fiction and Fantasy vein (for years prior to that they had eschewed shows in the genre). In the seasons that followed, the networks offered more and more scif fi / fantasy shows giving us a notable resurgence in the genre. However, not too many of these shows have enjoyed ratings success and none has equaled the popularity of Lost (though Heroes came close in its first season). Now with a string of fan favorite but short-lived shows (Jericho, Moonlight, Pushing Daisies) along with several high profile flubs (Bionic Woman, Knight Rider, and perhaps this season’s FlashForward and V), the networks seem to be re-thinking the viability of the genre in Prime Time. Sure, network short-sightedness and impatience helped speed along the demise of these shows. But the fact is that large audiences just do not typically flock to shows of this nature and they are often just not a good fit amongst standard Prime Time fare. I could go on for hours analyzing why, and perhaps I will later, but that’s not the focus of this article.

Looking ahead to next season’s schedule the question is what show or shows do Science Fiction and Fantasy fans have to rally around on the broadcast networks? For the past six seasons, Lost has been the pillar for the genre in Prime Time. With it bowing out, what takes its place? Fringe is probably the top candidate, but it has struggled in the ratings since FOX moved it to Thursdays and at this point it has no guarantee that it will even get a full third season. If NBC does bring back the ailing Heroes, I can’t see that show exciting too many fans. And Chuck has its fiercely loyal core fanbase but has never expanded much beyond that. CBS may decide to bring back the slumping Ghost Whiperer and/or Medium, but both of those shows appear to appeal to a different type audience than your typical Science Fiction and Fantasy shows. I can’t see ABC greenlighting FlashForward for a second season seeing as it currently lives in the ratings basement, and V is not far behind and has become such a mess that it needs to go. That leaves just the CW which is fast becoming the go-to network for genre shows, albeit skewed toward a younger audience. The network currently has three shows of interest to Science Fiction and Fantasy fans (Supernatural, Smallville, and Vampire Diaries) and has plans to add two or more next season (Nikita, Nomads, Betwixt).

Would it be a bad thing if the networks once again decided to avoid sci fi / fantasy shows like they did prior to Lost? I would say emphatically no. As I mentioned above, they just don’t have the patience needed to foster and develop programming in that genre. The cable networks are a better launching pad for these shows because they don’t expect to see high numbers overnight and will typically give them more time to grow and find an audience. And yes, we have all lambasted Syfy for its re-branding snub of sci fi fans and its embracing of non-genre and/or low-brow programming (wrestling, horrid schlock-movies, reality shows), but that network has also brought us more than its fair share of excellent Science Fiction and Fantasy series over the past decade (Farscape, Battlestar Galactica, Stargate: Atlantis, Eureka, and perhaps Stargate: Universe and Caprica just to name a few). And sure, it can act just like the broadcast networks at times when deciding the fates of shows, but still, Syfy seems more invested in its properties and a series has a better chance of success if it gets started there.

In any case, I expect to see fewer genre offerings from the Big 4 networks in the coming seasons. CBS currently has nothing of interest to sci fi / fantasy fans on their development slate and ABC, NBC, and FOX have fewer offerings for the pilot season than in previous years. The upfronts, where the networks present their 2010-11 schedule to sponsors and the press, kicks off on the week of May 17th, so we will see how the cards fall then. But I would say to expect quite a number of shows to get the axe along with sparse offerings from the broadcast networks for the upcoming season. There could be some announcements on cancellations and/or renewals as early as next week and stay tuned the following week as we will cover the upfronts closely and bring you any breaking news as soon as we receive it. In the meantime, enjoy the shows on the air now while you can, because your choices on the Prime Time schedule will be narrowing soon.

By John J. Joex

The current season is just about over, in fact several shows have already wrapped up their runs, so it’s time for the final set of predictions as we get ready for the final lap to the season end. Chances are, none of the networks will make any cancellation announcements in the next week or two as they will hold onto all of their cards going into the upfronts where they present their schedule for next season to their sponsors and the press. This will happen in mid-May (see dates below), so those of you waiting for word on your favorite show will likely have to wait until then to know its final fate. That’s not true with Legend of the Seeker, though, as Michael Ausiello of Entertainment Weekly has reported that one has already received the axe. But that’s a syndicated show and is not subject to the same considerations as the broadcast networks. As for the rest of the shows still with uncertain fates, I will look at them by the network.

On NBC, Chuck and Heroes both took ratings slides this year, though the latter saw a much more dramatic drop than the former. As to whether either can expect to return for one more year, I believe it all depends on how NBC responds to the Leno-pocalypse. They took a pretty serious drubbing for their Jay Leno experiment and the network’s overall numbers continue to decline. Thus, I believe that they go into next season trying to get a fresh start which means cutting all the dead weight they can. That definitely includes Heroes and could also expand to Chuck. On the other hand, both of these shows have been around for a while (Heroes – 4 seasons, Chuck 3 seasons), so they could look at padding out the episodes to improve their appeal for the syndication market, though neither would hit the magic 100 episode number with one more season. Heroes does continue to perform strong in foreign markets, so it has that in its favor. And according to the Hollywood Reporter, NBC is strongly considering giving that show a thirteen episode order for a final season. Still, that network is sinking fast and the Leno debacle caused them to take on even more water, so I say they push the panic button and jettison anything that will keep them from staying afloat. I could be wrong, but that’s what my gut tells me.

On CBS, the days for Ghost Whisperer, once king . . . er . . . queen of Friday nights, may be numbered. That show has seen a significant drop off in its numbers this year and CBS is notorious for having little patience with shows performing poorly in the ratings as well as anything in the Science Fiction and Fantasy genre. True, it still usually wins its timeslot on a night where all the networks struggle, and Medium has finally given it a decent lead-out, but both shows have sunk below a 2.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic for their season averages. Considering that Ghost Whisperer averaged a 3.6 rating last year and Medium a 2.9 (on NBC), this does not paint a good picture for their future. Also consider that CBS cancelled Eleventh Hour last year even though it ended the season in the Top 25 and averaged a 4.2 rating. Both Ghost Whisperer and Medium have already surpassed the 100 episode mark, so they are good for a syndication run, thus no reason to try and pad out episodes. The eye network may hold onto these two because they still do well for a Friday night, or they may just purge the schedule and start over and I see them leaning in that direction.

On ABC, I don’t think there is any question on the fate of the two bubble Science Fiction and Fantasy shows. FlashForward has tumbled so far in the ratings that two weeks ago Vampire Diaries, on perennial fifth place network CW, beat it in the ratings. And V has seen a steady downward trend in its numbers since it debuted last Fall. That one did stabilize last week and if it could trend up as it wraps up the season, it has a slight chance of survival. It would have to build back up to around a 3.0 rating, though, if it has any chance of seeing a second season and that looks doubtful. FlashForward, on the other hand, is done. Even if it did trend up for the rest of the season, it has already sunk too low to receive any serious consideration for a renewal. And don’t believe the claims that this one could survive because it has done well in foreign markets. That may work for a veteran show like Heroes, but ABC is not keeping around show performing well below a 2.0 in the ratings just because people overseas are watching it, especially not a freshman show. I say there is little question that both of these shows get the axe by season end.

At FOX, Human Target has a brighter future in my opinion. It has not been a ratings darling in its initial season, and it has trended downward throughout the season, but it has also typically won its timeslot on Wednesday nights. It’s also a very Prime Time friendly show in that it delivers fast-paced action, escapist entertainment, and mostly self-contained stories. I say FOX keeps this one around for another year and hopefully they decide to move it to a slot after American Idol to give it a strong lead-in to build up its audience.

The schedule for the upfronts for each of the broadcast networks is as follows: FOX and NBC – May 17th, ABC – May 18th, CBS – May 19th, The CW – May 20th. So unless a network decides to make an early announcement (more likely with renewals than cancellations), that’s when you will find out the fate of the remaining shows on the bubble. Stay tuned to this site in the mean time as we will bring you any breaking news as soon as we can. And enjoy as many of the shows mentioned above while you can because I am expecting the majority of them to be gone by season end. And check our Cancellation Watch page for the status of any of this season’s Science Fiction and Fantasy shows not mentioned here.