Axiom's Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

By John J. Joex

This past week delivered only three Science Fiction and Fantasy shows with new episodes all of which were their season finales. I reported the results of Lost and Chuck previously with the former finishing its six year run with strong numbers and the latter going out on a down note. On last Thursday, FlashForward wrapped up its first and only season as well (I had previously incorrectly reported the prior week as the series finale, but that was part one of the finale). Not too many people tuned in to see what happened in the series on the day everybody had “flashforwarded” to at the beginning of the show as part two of the finale pulled only a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic and not quite five million viewers. The episode ended on a huge cliffhanger as another blackout occurred right at the end, but we will never find out what happened from there as ABC pulled the plug on the show several weeks ago.

With the season over, I will take this opportunity to look back at the Cancellation Alert* that I posted for each series throughout the season and let you judge just how accurate I was in predicting the fates of the Science Fiction and Fantasy bubble shows that aired during the year (which included every genre entry except Lost and the CW shows).

Looking at the shows by network, I will start with ABC and Eastwick which had at least a decent debut, though its numbers fell off pretty quickly. After only its second week, I predicted this series would be an early casualty among genre shows and it was pulled from the schedule by the end of November. FlashForward started up the with very strong numbers and looked like it might live up to its billing as the next Lost but it saw its ratings decline almost every week throughout the Fall months. I started to raise the red flag on this one by mid-November and had it at a Cancellation Alert of Medium by the time it ended its Fall run. When it returned in Spring, the ratings attrition actually accelerated and ABC called it quits on the show the week before the upfronts. I missed on V, though, which started late last Fall with very strong numbers, but like FlashForword it headed south quickly. When it returned from its hiatus in Spring with a continued ratings decline I figured its days were numbered as well, but ABC mysteriously gave it the greenlight for a second season. My early prediction for next season, though, is that it will not live beyond its thirteen episode order unless they completely revamp the show and manage to attract back the audience that showed some initial curiosity last November.

When Ghost Whisperer and Medium bowed on CBS last Fall with only mediocre numbers, I did not think too much about it because both were winning their timeslots on a typically low viewership night. But they continued a slow decline throughout the season and I finally raised the Cancellation Alert on both of them by mid-March. I split the difference on my predictions here as Ghost Whisperer ended up getting the axe while CBS kept Medium going (in part because their production company does that one and thus they pay less for it). ABC hinted that they might pick up Ghost Whisperer (as their production company cranks that one out), but ended up passing on it.

NBC continued to struggle as the fourth place network and Heroes stumbled out of the gate last Fall prompting an early prediction that it would get the boot quickly. I was only partly right on that one, though, as NBC kept it chugging along, despite weekly drops in its ratings, because it had too many other leaks in its battered hull to deal with. They eventually decided to part ways with the tired franchise by season’s end, though they indicated that they may do a wrap-up movie or two. Chuck also struggled with the ratings, but it does that every season. I had that one at a Cancellation Alert of Medium by late April, but it beat the odds once again and received the go ahead for a fourth season.

FOX, previously known as the sci fi killer network, stuck behind two shows while it sent two others to the executioner. Fringe struggled in its new Thursday night slot against juggernauts CSI on CBS and Grey’s Anatomy on ABC, but I believed the network would stick behind the show and I never raised its Cancellation Alert above Low. And as it turned out, the series got the nod for a third season even though it never came close to matching the numbers it enjoyed in its first season. Human Target never quite grabbed a sizeable audience but I felt like FOX would keep it around as well. As its numbers continued to decline, I did raise its Cancellation Alert to Moderate, but my gut feel was right as the network gave it the greenlight for a second season. Dollhouse debuted last Fall to abysmal numbers, though I initially passed on making any predictions on the show because of its unlikely renewal from the prior season. It continued to fall, though, sometimes barely beating out Smallville on the CW, and I predicted that FOX would go ahead and pull the plug, which it did. Past Life arrived in February with little fanfare and was pretty much DOA as it took over Fringe’s treacherous timeslot while that show went on hiatus and barely registered against superior competition. I had that one at a Cancellation Alert of Elevated after its first episode and it was gone after only two more airings.

None of the genre shows on the CW really struggled this last season even though the numbers for both Supernatural and Smallville (which moved to Fridays) dropped off from the previous season. In fact, the part time network elected to keep these two shows running into next season even though both of them were originally scheduled to end this year.

This will be the last of the Ratings Results/Cancellation Watch reports this season, but I will break in with reports on any genre shows that the networks air this Summer like ABC’s supernatural series The Gates which premieres on June 20th. I will also over the next week be taking a look by network at why each of this season’s cancelled shows got the axe, so keep an eye out for that.  Also, watch later this Summer for my predictions on the new and returning shows for the coming Fall season (and you can get a first glimpse at the Fall schedule at this link).

*Following are the Five Cancellation Alert Levels:
1 – Low
2 – Moderate
3 – Medium
4 – Elevated
5 – High

By John J. Joex

Lost is gone now and a lot of viewers showed up to see it off. The series finale averaged a 5.8 rating in the 18-49 demo and 13.5 million viewers across its two and a half hours. Those are the best numbers that the show has seen since its season finale back in 2007, though they definitely fall short of the 18 million viewers that Lost averaged during its first couple of seasons. Still, that’s pretty good for a heavily serialized show that has run for six seasons. The recap/interview special that ran for two hours prior to the finale averaged a 4.0 rating, which is pretty darn good for an extended retread episode.

The two-hour season finale for Chuck did not have as much success as the more widely followed Lost, though. In fact Chuck hit series low with its third season swansong. It averaged only a 1.7 rating in the 18-49 demo across the two hours and just over 5 million viewers. It did have some pretty serious competition from several other finales on the other networks as well as Dancing with the Stars and the series premiere of The Bachelorette on ABC. And I would expect the show to make up for some of those losses when the DVR numbers come in. Still it does not bode well for Chuck going into next season, but then this show seems to thrive by living on the edge.

Source: TV by the Numbers

By John J. Joex

Most of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows wrapped up their seasons this past week with little fanfare. FlashForward seemed to have the most success with its finale as it managed to climb back up to a 1.6 rating in the 18-49 demographic. Of course without a new episode of Vampire Diaries to contend with (which has beat it the last few weeks) and with Survivor done its competition was not quite as strong as it has been. V closed out its season down from the prior week with a 2.3 rating and Fringe saw a drop-off as well with only a 2.1 rating. Ghost Whisperer and Medium improved their numbers just a bit as both pulled a 1.6 rating in their season swansongs. Chuck and Lost will wrap up their seasons this week, with the latter having its much anticipated series finale tonight. I will run a special edition of the ratings results column on Tuesday with the final results from those two shows.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

There’s just a couple more weeks left in the current season and with the announcements over the last few days we know the fates of most of the bubble shows. Chuck, Human Target, and V got the thumbs up for another season. Heroes and FlashForward got thrown to the lions. Ghost Whisperer and Medium are still waiting for word on their fates and with their slip in performance this past week once again (both shows pulling only a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic), their prospects seem to be fading.

The CW’s three genre shows all wrapped up their seasons this past week and pulled decent numbers, for that network at least. Vampire Diaries scored a 1.7 rating in the 18-49 demo, Supernatural scared up a 1.3 rating, and Smallville flew out with a 1.0 rating. All three of those shows will be back next season.

V improved its ratings from the past few weeks which may have helped win that show its unlikely renewal announcement. It pulled a 2.4 rating in the 18-49 demo, giving it an upward trend as it prepares to close out its season. FlashForward, on the other hand, stayed flat and unsurprisingly received its walking papers this last week.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

Is there anybody out there still holding out hope that FlashForward will get a second season? If so, here’s a message for you: give it up. The show just sinks lower and lower each week and this past week it managed only a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic. That’s almost 20% lower than the 1.6 that Vampire Diaries pulled in the same timeslot. That’s a CW show slamming ABC in the ratings! The CW is the perennial fifth place network and it is beating ABC in Prime Time by that margin? Sorry FlashForward. You have really improved story-wise since returning this spring, but no show will survive long on the Big 4 networks with numbers like that (sure, Dollhouse did get renewed by FOX last season with even lower numbers, but that was a one-in-a-million occurrence and it’s gone now).

V edged up this past week from the season low it hit last week, but then it had a new episode of Lost as its lead-in once again. And the 2.2 rating in the 18-49 demo that it did manage to scrape up does not make a strong argument for its continuation.

I don’t know what to make of Friday nights as it appears viewership on that night is experiencing a continued downward trend. Ghost Whisperer, Medium, and Smallville (as well as the non-genre shows) just aren’t pulling that many viewers anymore. Smallville is safe as the CW has already given it the thumbs up for another season. But does CBS clean house with its Friday night schedule and try a whole new slate, or do they stick with shows that at least typically win their timeslots on a night when most people are away from their TV sets? We will find out for sure by the time of next week’s upfronts when the schedule for the coming season is announced.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

Is should come as no surprise for those following this column and my Cancellation Watch column that FlashForward’s prospects are quickly sinking, and this past week the show got three additional bits of bad news. Not only did its numbers sink from the prior week (Bad News #1) but it lost out to the CW’s Vampire Diaries for a second time this Spring (Bad News #2) as that show barely beat it out with a 1.6 rating in the 18-49 demographic vs. FlashFoward‘s ~1.55 rating. Then, if that wasn’t bad enough, E! Online has reported (Bad News #3) that a third cast member from the show has signed on with another show (Christine Woods who plays Janis Hawk), which is usually the sign of rats leaving a sinking ship. It’s really quite a shame because the show has hit its stride since returning from its hiatus, but it looks to have almost no chance of continuing into a second season now.

ABC’s other Science Fiction show V also took a hit this week as it did not have a new episode of Lost to act as a lead-in. This resulted in the show’s numbers dropping to a 1.9 rating in the 18-49 demo and pretty much putting a nail in the coffin for that one as well. Also continuing to struggle are CBS’s two Friday night supernatural shows. Ghost Whisperer and Medium returned from two weeks of repeats and only posted a 1.5 and a 1.4 rating respectively, though admittedly both still won their timeslots. And FOX’s Fringe has trended downward the last couple weeks as well, posting only a 2.0 rating this past Thursday. The show has already received the greenlight for a third season, but if its numbers continue to slump as it wraps up this season, I wonder if this could cause FOX’s confidence to wane and if they could cut back on the order for next year.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

With three shows in repeats (Chuck, Ghost Whisperer, Medium) and one show having completed its season (Human Target), there were no major changes in the ratings last week. Lost was down a bit (to a 3.6 rating in the 18-49 demographic), but that doesn’t mean much for the show at this point in its run. FlashForward did climb back up again and managed to beat out Vampire Diaries last week, but its 1.6 rating won’t do much to sway ABC into giving the greenlight for a second season. V finally stabilized after multiple weeks of declining ratings, but its 2.3 rating does not present a strong case for renewal either. Fringe did take a significant beating on Thursday night as it sunk to a 2.1 rating, but that show already has its third season renewal so it does not have to worry too much.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

Ever since ABC’s FlashForward returned from its extended hiatus and resumed its ratings decline, fifth place network CW’s hit show Vampire Diaries has been biting at its heals in the ratings. And this past week, that latter overtook the former in the all important 18-49 demographic. FlashForward only registered a 1.4 rating while Vampire Diaries managed to leap-frog it with a 1.5 rating, and you know that has to stick in the craw of ABC. I figured ABC would have pulled FlashForward from the schedule a few weeks ago because of its poor performance, but they have stuck with it and even announced the season finale date. I don’t know if this development will change anything, because the alphabet network has really worked hard to prop up their freshman show, but don’t be surprised if it gets schedule-shifted on a moment’s notice.

Human Target wrapped up its season on a down note as it sunk to a 1.9 rating in its final outing, though it did still win its timeslot. Fringe continues to regain its audience as it built up to a 2.5 rating this past Thursday. Smallville, though, took a plunge on Friday to a 0.7 rating, but it doesn’t have to worry too much because it has already received a renewal notice. And the struggling Ghost Whisperer and Medium were not helped at all by airing repeat episodes yet again.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

Several shows had an upswing in the ratings this past week while several others experienced a downturn. Receiving some good news, of sorts, for the first time in a long time was ABC’s FlashForward. It managed to turn around its long trend of declining numbers and pulled a 1.7 rating in the 18-49 demographic. The bad news that comes with the good is that the show is still a long way away from any sort of numbers that would give it even a glimmer of hope for a second season. This just means that ABC may keep it on the schedule until it finishes its inaugural run which has definitely been in doubt of late (though give the network credit for some heavy promotion of the show). Also seeing an upswing in the ratings this past week, as it chomps at FlashForward’s heels, was Vampire Diaries at a 1.6 rating (good numbers for the CW) as it comes close to returning to its season to date average. Fringe and Supernatural also improved by a tick Ghost Whisperer and and Medium rebounded a bit from the season (and series) lows they suffered last week.

Going in the wrong direction last week was ABC’s V. It dropped to a 2.5 rating in the 18-49 demo, down from the 2.9 it posted upon its return from its hiatus the prior week. That’s some pretty bad news for that show which was just barely clinging to life with the numbers it had sustained up to that point. In fact, the show could not even win its timeslot and the chances of it getting the greenlight for a second season seem pretty slim barring a quick turnaround ratings. Also down a bit this week, though not as much as V, were Lost, Human Target, and Smallville.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column

By John J. Joex

I realize that the networks cannot run new episodes all season long because of the cost involved, but it seems like they can do a better job of controlling the breaks that impact viewership. Looking at this past week, you see some pretty low numbers across the Science Fiction and Fantasy entries, and almost all of the drops are associated with shows that have taken breaks recently.

ABC’s FlashForward may have been trending downward already last Fall, but the four month hiatus it went on surely didn’t do the show any favors as its ratings have been in freefall since returning and the countdown is on as to when ABC will make a move with it. FOX’s Human Target took a multi-week break a month ago (preceded by significant schedule juggling) and has never managed to stabilize its numbers. Fringe, which has faced an uphill battle in its Thursday night timeslot this season, took a second hiatus after its short return in January which stilted the momentum it was starting to build (though fortunately it has already received a third season nod). And it’s not just shows with ratings woes that have been impacted. Vampire Diaries has been a huge success for the CW this season (by that network’s standards), but after taking a second break in February and March, it has not been able to rebuild its audience. It had a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demo upon its return which then dipped to a 1.3 last week, well below the 1.8 it was previously averaging. Then look at how much CBS’s Ghost Whisperer and Medium tumbled after their two week absence during the College Basketball playoffs. Those two each managed just a 1.3 rating while airing new episodes this past Friday.

ABC’s V is the only show that so far appears to have not been hurt as much by its absence from the schedule. After a four month break, that show returned with a 2.9 rating which is just a few ticks lower than the 3.1 it ended with. We will see how it tracks in the coming weeks, though.

Still, it seems like the constant breaks in airing episodes hampers viewership, so the networks either need to find a better scheduling strategy or a better way to get the word out when new episodes are airing.

Here is the full breakdown of the numbers for all of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows that aired on the broadcast networks this past week:

Source: TV by the Numbers

For more on the Cancellation Alert for each show, see our Cancellation Watch column