Cancellation Watch 2009-10 Season
We realize that the 2009-10 season has not begun yet, but following are Johnny Jay’s pre-season predictions for the shows that will bow in Fall 2009. Read more on how he came up with his predictions at this link. Also, check out his pre-Mid-Season prediction.
| Title | Network | Cancellation Alert | Comments |
| Eastwick | ABC | Medium | Is it a bad omen that two previous pilots based on this premise failed to fly, or is three a charm? Give ABC credit for continuing to give Science Fiction and Fantasy shows a shot, but then also give them a knock for rarely sticking behind them. |
| Flash Forward | ABC | Moderate | This one is being billed as the next Lost and probably has the greatest chance of succeeding out of ABC’s three new Fall entries. I don’t like its Thursday 8 PM EST timeslot, though. Seems like it might have trouble building an audience there. |
| Lost | ABC | n/a | Since Lost is already scheduled to wrap up this season, it has no real Cancellation Alert status. However, if it goes out on a strong note, ABC could consider a spin-off or some other continuation for the franchise |
| V | ABC | Medium | The original did well in its two mini-series incarnations, then lost ground when it switched to a weekly series. This will be an expensive show, and as mentioned, ABC is not good at showing patience with Science Fiction and Fantasy shows. |
| Star Wars: The Clone Wars | Cartoon Network | Low | Cartoon Network scored a huge hit with this during its initial season. And even if the ratings tanked this season, George Lucas would probably shell out the money himself to keep it on the air because you know he is making a mint on the merchandising. |
| Ghost Whisperer | CBS | Low | This one rules Friday nights (a typically low viewership night) and will continue to do so this year. |
| Medium | CBS | Moderate | On one hand, the cast and crew of this show have to be happy that CBS saved it when NBC discarded it at the end of last season. But CBS has the lowest tolerance of any network for Science Fiction and Fantasy shows (witness last season’s cancellation of The Eleventh Hour). Plus, the show gets stuck in a slot where few shows have performed well in recent past (except for Moonlight. Hello, CBS!) Still, it should make a good match with The Ghost Whisper, so it might have a chance. |
| Smallville | CW | Low | This old standby has lasted eight years now and will probably keep chugging along as long as the CW believes they can continue to milk the franchise. |
| Supernatural | CW | Low | Series created Eric Kripke says he would like this show to wrap up after the current season, so going out on their own terms does not count as cancellation. And in any case, the CW has not agreed to this and could keep the show on a few more years. |
| Vampire Diaries | CW | Low | This seems like the one surefire hit among the new shows this season, but then if it skews too heavily to its target young female audience that may be its undoing. |
| Dollhouse | FOX | No Idea | How do you gauge this one? It’s renewal last season is considered a television miracle. So do they hold it to the same standards for its second season, or is the show on notice? We will just have to wait and see on this one. |
| Fringe | FOX | Low | I am starting with a Low Cancellation Alert on FOX’s hit from last season, but I’m tentative on that. It’s move to Thursday’s at 9 PM EST looks pretty precarious. It held its own against CBS’s monster hit The Mentalist in its first year, but how will it do against juggernauts CSI and Grey’s Anatomy? And if it stumbles there, does Fox quickly move it to a more friendly spot, or do they kick it to the curb. I have to say that I am more than a bit nervous. |
| Human Target | FOX | Low | FOX has promoted this one pretty heavily and will give it a comfortable post-American Idol timeslot, so they seem to want it to stick around. I’m giving it good odds at this point. |
| Past Life | FOX | Elevated | Unlike Human Target, FOX does not seem to have much faith in this one and is given it little chance to survive. They will put it in the Thursday 9 PM EST timeslot that has killed Fringe’s numbers this season and they already cut its episode order from 13 to 7. Vegas isn’t giving very good odds on this one’s survival chances. |
| Chuck | NBC | Low | The NBC executives have a soft spot for this show and have promoted its third season pretty heavily so I’m guessing they expect it to stick around a while. |
| Heroes | NBC | Medium | This is the last chance for Heroes. Any other network would have cancelled the show based on last season’s performance, and I can’t believe NBC will stick behind this one without evidence of a serious turnaround. And I don’t care how often characters come back to life on the show, if NBC kills Heroes, it ain’t coming back. |
| Caprica | SyFy | Low | SyFy doesn’t demand the same ratings that the broadcast networks want to see and it also wants to keep the Battlestar Galactica franchise alive and relevant. Expect this one to stick around. |
| Sanctuary | SyFy | Low | This freshman hit for SyFy should continue to deliver the same level of ratings in its second season and should coast into a renewal. |
| Stargate: Universe | SyFy | Low | Expect the third television incarnation of the Stargate franchise to deliver the same ratings performance as the previous two. |
| Legend of the Seeker | Syndication | Low | This syndicated series did quite well in its first season and will likely continue with the same performance in Season 2. |
